When you are writing about a new topic, there is a balance that you need to achieve. This is between having a ‘relatively unbiased view’ (because you are new) vs ‘lack of expertise / depth of knowledge’ (because you are new). I am going to take this plunge with the scales firmly tilted towards having a ‘relatively unbiased view’.
According to an extensive analysis of the NFT marketplace conducted by Nansen (last update in March 2022), interest in NFT minting is declining. More details and analysis in the link below:
If we go into lists of the most popular NFT projects to follow in 2022, we will come up with the usual suspects — Bored Apes Yacht Club, Decentraland, Moonbirds, NBA TopShots, Crypto Baristas etc etc. If you go by trading volume, some of the same names crop up.
If we consider each NFT project as a new brand, with each NFT in the project as a variant / range / sub-brand, we arrive at some interesting comparisons:
“One in three NFT collections will fail” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-26/nft-collection-failures-begin-to-mount-in-flashback-to-ico-bust)
“With some variations across different sectors, around 80% of new product launches will fail, and more so if the initial product concept has low or average appeal” (https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/setting-the-record-straight-common-causes-of-innovation-failure-1.pdf)
In sum, what we see as failure rates of NFT projects is akin to failure rates of products and brands in traditional industries (or to take the apt web3 phrase — In Real Life (IRL))
The boring bit about successful NFT projects (if you take into account trading volumes) is nothing but ‘past success driving future success’. There is a…
